[1]李富程,王青,李国蓉,等.马尔柯夫过程预测官司河流域土地利用/覆被格局变化[J].水土保持研究,2009,16(05):31-34,39.
　LI Fu-cheng,WANG Qing,LI Guo-rong.Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Patterns Using Markov Chain Model in Guansi River Valley[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2009,16(05):31-34,39.
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马尔柯夫过程预测官司河流域土地利用/覆被格局变化

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 16 期数: 2009年05期 页码: 31-34,39 栏目: 出版日期: 2009-10-20
Title:
Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Patterns Using Markov Chain Model in Guansi River Valley
作者:
李富程1, 王青1, 李国蓉1, 慕长龙2
1. 西南科技大学, 环境与资源学院, 四川 绵阳 621010;
2. 四川省林业科学研究院, 成都 610081
Author(s):
LI Fu-cheng1, WANG Qing1, LI Guo-rong1
1. College of Resource & Environment, Southwest University of Science and Technology, Mianyang, Sichuan 621010, China;
2. Sichuan Academy of Forestry, Chengdu 610081, China
关键词:
土地利用/覆被变化; 马尔柯夫过程; 转移概率; 官司河流域
Keywords:
land use and cover change; Markov Chain Model; transition probability; Guansi River valley
分类号:
F301.24
摘要:
在RS和GIS的支持下，利用官司河流域1995年和2005年的遥感图像作为信息源，分析土地利用类型变化的初始状态矩阵和转移概率矩阵，基于马尔柯夫过程模型对官司河流域未来15a土地利用/覆被格局的变化趋势进行预测和模拟。结果表明：交通运输用地、城镇建设用地、马尾松有林地、柏树有林地的面积比例将持续增大；耕地和农村宅基地面积比例将持续减少；水域及水利设施用地和有林地（栎树）的面积比例变化平缓，有林地（栎树）变化过程中出现极大值。在此基础上，提出了土地利用结构优化的建议。
Abstract:
In the support of the RS and GIS,this article regards remote sensing of Guansi River valley in 1995 and 2005 as an information source to analyze the changes in land-use types of the initial state matrix and transition probability matrix.Based on Markov process model,the land ues/cover pattern changing trends of Guansi River valley in the next 15 years are predicted and simulated.The results showed that: land transportation,urban construction land,and woodland and forest whose proportion of the area will continue to increase.Area of arable land and house sites in rural areas will continue to reduce.Waters and water conservancy facilities and woodland sites changes in the ratio of flat area,and there are a maximum value in the course of woodland changes.Basis on the research results,the optimization of land use structure was recommended.

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2009-4-20;
基金项目:国家“十一五”科技支撑计划项目（2006BAD03A0204）
作者简介:李富程(1982-)，男，吉林蛟河人，硕士，研究方向：环境影响评价与规划。E-mail：lifucheng82@163.com
通讯作者:王青(1967-)，男，山西阳高人，博士后，教授，主要从事环境影响评价与规划。E-mail：qingw@imde.ac.cn

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01