[1]后立胜,蔡运龙,罗定贵.省域农村发展可持续性评价的BP法[J].水土保持研究,2005,12(04):119-121.
　HOU Li-sheng,CAI Yun-long,LUO Ding-gui.An Attempt to Assess the Sustainability of Chinese Agricultural and Rural Development by Using the Method of Back-propagation Neural Network[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2005,12(04):119-121.
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省域农村发展可持续性评价的BP法

《水土保持研究》[ISSN:1005-3409/CN:61-1272/P] 卷: 12 期数: 2005年04期 页码: 119-121 栏目: 出版日期: 1900-01-01
Title:
An Attempt to Assess the Sustainability of Chinese Agricultural and Rural Development by Using the Method of Back-propagation Neural Network
作者:
后立胜, 蔡运龙, 罗定贵
北京大学环境学院资源环境与地理系, 北京, 100871
Author(s):
HOU Li-sheng, CAI Yun-long, LUO Ding-gui
Department of Resources and Environmental Geosciences, School of Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
关键词:
农村可持续发展; BP法; 评价; 尝试
Keywords:
sustainable agricultural and rural development; back-propagation neural network; assessment; method attempt
分类号:
F320.3
摘要:
可持续发展是当今研究的一个热点问题，与此密切关联的对可持续性状态进行评价的方法也层出不穷；然而，迄今为止，可持续发展方面的研究中，还没有一种评价体系和预测方法，能得到普遍应用和认可。拟运用BP算法的良好的预测功能，以27个省区的反映各省农村可持续性发展状况的16项指标作为输入变量，以赋值量化的可持续性状况作为训练目标，进行网络训练；之后，根据训练好的网络，对未参与训练的其它4个省区的农村发展可持续性状况进行预测；最后，将预测的结果与该4省区已知的农村可持续发展状况进行比较和评价。本方法尝试的结果表明，BP法能较好地用在对省域农村发展可持续性进行预测和评价上。
Abstract:
Sustainable development is a hot problem of present science research, there are many assessing methods on sustainability.Nevertheless, up to now, the studies have not gotten a universal accepted model on sustainable assessment or prediction.It is an attempt to assess the sustainability of Chinese agricultural and rural development by using the method of back-propagation neural network (BP).As to each province, 16 indexes reflecting agricultural and rural development are regarded as its input variables, and the quantitative index of sustainability is regarded as its training target.27 provinces from 31 provinces of China (except Taiwan) are thrown in for the BP-network training.Then, the trained BP-network can be used to predict the sustainable value of other 4 provinces that are not the participant for foregoing training.Finally, after comparing the predicting value with its known value, it is put forth that the BP method would a good attempt to assess or predict the sustainability of agricultural and rural development.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

收稿日期:2005-4-26
基金项目:国家自然科学基金重点项目（40335046）
作者简介:后立胜（1971- ），男，江西进贤人，博士生，研究方向为资源管理与区域开发。

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01